Georgia’s Population Growth Amidst Negative Demographic Trends – Questions Surrounding the 2024 Census and GeoStat’s Response

Preliminary data from the 2024 General Census shows that Georgia’s population stands at 3.914 million. The census was conducted nationwide from 14 November to 31 December 2024, excluding the occupied territories. It covered all Georgian citizens permanently residing in the country as well as foreign citizens and stateless individuals who had been, or intended to be, in Georgia for one year or more.

For comparison, the 2014 census recorded a population of 3,713,804, indicating an increase of over 200,000 over the past decade. However, it remains unclear what portion of this figure represents Georgian citizens and how their numbers have changed.

Approximately 3.7 million people live in Georgia according to GeoStat’s current data. The discrepancy between this figure and the preliminary census results is around 200,000 – an error of 5.4%. This cannot be dismissed as a minor statistical deviation but rather raises serious questions about the reliability of the preliminary census results.

Population change is determined by two main factors: natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) and migration (the difference between immigrants and emigrants). Both indicators were negative during the intercensal period. Georgia recorded 4,158 more deaths than births between 2015 and 2024, resulting in a natural population decline. Furthermore, the migration balance was also negative: emigrants exceeded immigrants by 13,252 people from 2015 to 2024. It is important to note that the aforementioned gap was far greater amongst Georgian citizens – 243,702 more citizens left the country than returned. Whilst the inflow of foreign citizens substantially offset this trend, the migration balance remained negative.

The preliminary results of the 2024 census sharply contradict this demographic reality captured in the National Statistics Office data: natural decline, negative migration trends and a mass emigration of citizens. With both key indicators – the birth-to-death ratio and the migration balance – pointing to a shrinking population, an increase of 200,000 people is not only unexpected but raises serious questions about the reliability of the data. This is particularly striking given that census methodology and criteria remained unchanged since 2014.

FactCheck spoke with Paata Shavliashvili, Deputy Executive Director of GeoStat, regarding the 2024 General Census:

- A foreign citizen who was subject to the census and included in the population – what criteria determined that they were permanent citizens rather than temporary?

- A foreign citizen who has been in the country for over 12 months, or intends to stay for more than 12 months, is considered part of the permanent population and thus included in the statistics.

- A Georgian citizen who has temporarily left the country – are they included in the population census?

- Yes, a Georgian citizen who has temporarily left the country for less than one year is included in Georgia’s population.

- How did GeoStat ensure that individuals were not counted twice (for example, those temporarily staying at different addresses)?

Each person’s personal information – identification number, name, surname and residential address – was cross-checked during data processing to prevent duplication.

- Exactly how many people were recorded in the 2024 census as Georgian citizens and how many as foreign citizens or stateless persons?

This data has not yet been processed. It will be available in one year, at the end of June 2026.

- Was the methodology for the 2014 and 2024 censuses identical?

The methodology did not change. The 2024 census was carried out using the exact same criteria as in 2014, including a key condition of a minimum 12-month stay in the country.

- Many people around myself report they did not participate in the census. How common were cases of non- or incomplete participation and how were such individuals included in the statistics?

Whilst such cases did, in fact, occur, it should be noted that the census was not limited to fieldwork or face-to-face interviews. Information was also gathered through alternative means.

First, family members could provide data about other household members and neighbours were sometimes used as sources. We had access to administrative data – such as records on students, pupils, social benefit recipients and pensioners – which was also used to identify individuals. Thus, even if someone refused to participate, they could still be accounted for in the statistics.

That said, the majority of data was still obtained through direct interviews.

- How do you explain population growth when both natural increase and the migration balance were negative between 2015 and 2024?

There is nothing illogical or unexpected about this. Administrative records – for instance numbers of pupils, students and pensioners – show that these groups have actually grown. Therefore, population growth during this period is not inconsistent with the available data.

- Although the birth rate has declined, deaths have outnumbered births and more people have left the country than entered. In light of this data, how can the population growth be explained?

The negative natural increase is small enough that it has not significantly affected the overall population. As for migration, it is not yet possible to make a precise assessment because [u1] is still unavailable. We will be able to see which countries’ populations have increased or decreased next year when statistics broken down by citizenship are published. This analysis will provide a fuller picture and help identify the main factors behind the population growth.

Thus, whilst the 2024 census recorded a population increase of 200,000, existing demographic indicators – natural decline and a negative migration balance – suggest the opposite trend. If the census methodologies in both 2014 and 2024 were, in fact, accurate and comparable, the most plausible explanation is that the recorded growth reflects an influx of foreign citizens residing in Georgia or intending to stay for at least 12 months. Accordingly, the increase likely does not indicate growth in the number of Georgian citizens. On the contrary, given the high rate of emigration amongst Georgian citizens, it is reasonable to assume their numbers have actually declined over the past decade. However, a definitive conclusion will only be possible once the final census results are published and the data is broken down by citizenship.